What has more than 40 years in the racing game taught me?
The MC is the worst race all year for punters to bet on, yet every year the sheep are slaughtered.
Just because a horse is running on strongly at the end of 2400m, 2600m, even 2800m, it's no guarantee they will run 3200m. Learned that one in my teens.
There is not much between the alleged elite jockeys and the alleged also rans.
Have a look at yesterday, when some of the so called best in the world were scouting wide, where did the first 2 come from?
You might argue this is just one race, but no, it happens all the time.
Most overseas runners (and riders, see above) are over rated, or over bet.
In Handicaps look to the top of the weights and the weight spread. Yesterday's Cup was the worst class-wise in many a year.
Why we need so many alleged racing experts in the media is beyond me, most could not punt their way out of a paper bag, therefore don't listen to "tipsters". Having said that pay attention to my next point.
Horse are not machines. Very few are freaks, but the vast majority are not.
Look for horses who put in huge runs or have hard runs, they rarely back up and some get cooked for good.
2 recent examples, after Pride Of Jenni smashed them in the QE2 race, I posted on another site that she would not win again. 5 runs later she's had 1 win at odds on in a 4 horse race. And somehow now it's the jockey's fault.
Amelia's Jewel had a gut buster to get past, ironically, Pride Of Jenni. I've laid her in all 9 starts since for no wins. Even a change of trainer didn't help.
Hope this helps someone.