Several times last season, I mentioned startling outcomes that happened when teams played matches that did not involve a week’s rest. These are the “congested fixtures”. There are two types of those pesky fixtures. First, a team could have had the normal rest before a match but the next match is to be played in 3 or 4 days. Wanting to play smart, the players may pace themselves to avoid injury and fatigue, especially considering that many players on top teams also play for country and in cup matches. The second case is where players take the pitch following a match played just 3 or 4 days before. Then, the players are more fatigued than usual. Generally, anything that disrupts the pattern of play by a strong team can be expected to aid a weaker team.

I went back to my 2017-2018 predictions. I had calculated bets for 14 rounds with congested fixtures and 16 rounds with normal rest. I found that there was a profit in only 21% of the rounds with congested fixtures, compared to a profit in 62% of the rounds played with normal pacing. The odd results generally happened during congested fixtures. For the 19 rounds so far this season, I had time to apply my betting methods to 17. Of the five with congested fixtures, betting to win provided profit in 20% (almost the same as 21% for last season). For the 12 rounds played with normal pacing, using bets to win, there was a profit in 58% of the rounds (almost the same as 62% for last season).

Now, get this: last week during round 18, I had mentioned how odd it was for Man City to lose to Crystal Place, when Crystal Palace supporters cashed decimal odds of 21. In round 19, Man City lost for the third time this season, this time to Leicester. My point is that all three losses came during congested fixtures. With normal pacing, Man City were undefeated.

Because of the largely unpredictable results during congested fixtures, keeping your money in your pocket for those matches may be your best “bet”.