25th July 2017, 10:40 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Mar 2012
Posts: 1,237
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by UselessBettor
Assuming your estimations are correct.
Lets assume 45% winning chance of the top 2.
Generally I'll assume top pick wins 25% and second pick wins 20%.
If your 90% sure pick 1 can't win then it now has a 25%*0.10 chance which is 2.5% chance.
So your new chance is 55% chance for any other selection to win. 2.5% chance of your top pick winning = total chance of 57.5% chance of winning.
Your second pick now has a 100-57.5 = 42.5% chance of winning the race.
Of course these are all made up numbers as you can not be 90% sure your top pick will lose and if you did then you would look at excluding that as its no longer your top pick.
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So 80% sure would equate to 40% chance second pick wins. Bottom line is that the second pick is likely to be 60-70% more likely to win than average long term strike rate which is significant. Let's assume that this scenario is invisible to most punters.
More profitable to back the second pick or do we just lay the first pick?
Cheers LG
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The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB
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