1st November 2016, 10:38 AM
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Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 605
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For what it's worth, here's my tips:
2016 Melbourne Cup
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1. Big Orange - $12
Better horse this year than last. This edition should see more pace, which will be an advantage. Will be in the leading bunch and the draw indicates it should find that position with relative ease. In winning form and of dominanting size, though will have to break the 'no lead-up race in Australia prior to the Cup' hoodoo.
2. Heartbreak City - $18
Barrier draw is a worry, though the jockey booking is fantastic and had a spectacular last race in the UK. No worries at the distance. If it can find a good spot midfield in running and gets the breaks coming into the straight, should do very well.
3. Almandin - $11
Rise in class and distance. Has been dodging races since The Bart Cummings to maintain its light weight. Pedigree says it should get the 3200m; two of the last three winners came from its sire (also beat Protectionist in Germany in 2014, prior to it coming and out winning the Cup).
4. Secret Number - $26
Only run in Australia, but has a great first up record and from a stable that has huge experience in preparing foreign raiders. Query over the distance, but pedigree indicates it should do well.
5. Hartnell - $6
In stupendous form this season though has failed badly in two attempts at 3200m in Australia. Beat Jameka over 2000m comprehensively two runs ago and now meets her better at the weights.
6. Jameka - $8.50
Makybe Diva is the only mare to have carried more and won, though Jameka's earned it following Caulfield Cup win. Great draw, likely to find the sit it needs. Running in spite of its pedigree which indicates it's looking for a sit-and-sprint. Never run this far or this far into its prep.
7. Exospheric - $21
Great run in the Caulfield Cup. Very early in his career and first attempt at the distance, but pedigree says it should do well.
8. Gallante - $51
Would've preferred more give in the track. Has run the distance, winning the Sydney Cup in April. Good draw and on-pace. Touched up by Jameka in the Naturalism Stakes, but put a gap on the rest of the field and meets her now 3kg better at the weights. Last run was poor, but a forgive.
9. Bondi Beach - $9.50
Last year was a Melbourne Cup reconnaisance mission (finishing 6L back after getting caught in a demolition derby), more of a chance this time around.
10. Qewy - $26
Beat Oceanographer in the Geelong Cup, is better here at the weights, doesn't rely on sprinting around or running through the field to the finish, hardy type having run in hurdles and chases (which is a background that has performed well in the cup of late). Yet it's at $26 and Oceanographer is at $9...
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