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Old 29th June 2016, 07:02 PM
SystemSampleSize SystemSampleSize is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2016
Posts: 3
Smile Newby - System Sample Size question...

Which (theoretical) bet to place system is best?

System One
$10k bank
$1k bets (10% takeout)
Races 990
Wins (PLC) 746
Strike Rate 75.4%
Avg Win Div $1.40
Profit on Turnover 5.21%
Profit $51,540
Max bank risk 36.9%
Avg bank risk 15.4%
Max outs 5


System Two
$10k bank
$1k bets (10% takeout)
Races 688
Wins (PLC) 520
Strike Rate 75.6%
Avg Win Div $1.40
Profit on Turnover 6.84%
Profit $47,080
Max bank risk 39.8%
Avg bank risk 14.6%
Max outs 6

Profit and bank risks are broadly similar...

Is the 30% larger sample size in System One significant enough in terms of improving predictability / reliability to justify the “cost / benefit” associated with a slightly lower POT and having to place an extra 300 x $1000 bets for an additional (approx) $4k return???

Thanks in advance for any helpful comments...



p.s. above bet numbers are based on placing 2 to 3 bets / week.
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