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Originally Posted by UselessBettor
You may not able to use that successfully. Others can make it work but they think differently to the way you would and that's ok. There are thousands of ways to make money on the horses. Identifying the chances based on "safety factors" is one of the main ways I make a profit.
As I said most people are not safe enough and do not include enough safety factors.
One of the difficulties is understanding how to back test those factors. As I have said before 99% of people can't do that properly and therefore adding safety factors is just extra back fitting and that does not work.
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I'm not quite sure where you're coming from UB, but I think we have a different interpretation of "safe". I haven't been able to find any success with horses priced 50/1 and over, it seems that these roughies don't win enough. I also haven't bothered with odds on, it seems that these shorties are the conveyances that offer the best return though.
I interpret "safe" (or safety factors) as exposed form that has stood the test of time to produce winners, top jockeys, decent barriers, highly rated, fit etc, etc. My targets are those horses that do have a decent chance in the race (using a constant price filter range) but lose their appeal to the masses because there's a negative that flies off the form guide and hits you right in the eyes, for example going up in class, another horse in the race has such a massive weight advantage over yours that it cannot possibly be overlooked (therefore your horse is given no chance on weights), disappointing last run, barrier ..... I'm looking to be overcompensated. I believe in the old adage, if you don't learn from history then you're condemned to repeat it. I believe that generation after generation make the same blunders as their previous generation, and I believe that there's great value to be had by taking a stance against popular filters.
Some of the outcomes from my research is unbelievable (proof that human nature can take only so much!!!) ..... Testing a single form line at a time in a decent and logical system sees the S/R and LOT gradually diminish as expected, and in unison as the form inputted worsens incrementally, then ..... WHAM!!!!! it hits a point where it falls right off the cliff, lock stock and barrel. There's your value, right there. There's human nature.
It doesn't have to be poor form, it can be going up in class with good form, but where history suggests the horse may finally be out of it's league. Even tho' an old adage suggests that winners keep winning, and one would expect punters to be on board, there's plenty of evidence, and consistent evidence, to suggest that in certain types of races these horses are dismissed by the majority of punters .... there's your value.
Then there's just plain crap form and mostly they don't win. But there's a point where a line in the sand has been drawn and the crap form can produce a reversal and produce a winner ..... I've found "crap" form under certain conditions produces the most consistent S/R of all the systems I've got and looked at over the years (Amazeballs). It's like the trainer is giving it one last chance this time in.
Almost finding it impossible to put in writing what I do, but I've tried. As UselessBettor said, there's thousands of ways to win, but do they stand the test of time. If generation after generation make the same mistakes that the previous generation made (which I strongly believe), then it makes sense to bet against them?!, not in a random way, but more or less concentrate on what turns punters off and get your value there.