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20th January 2015, 10:31 PM
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Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 603
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rinconpaul
Correct me if I'm wrong any of you stats genuise's out there, but the odds of getting the trifecta (using Betfair back price) was 100 x 70 x 46 = 321,999:1 The trifecta paid about $5,000 from memory.
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Assuming that the thing I read on the internet regarding the Discounted Harville method was correct, and that I didn't stuff up my implementation for 12 runners from the example that was given with 7 runners, a "fair" price for the winning trifecta (given the win odds for the field - and using the presumption that the odds are a somewhat accurate representation of the true probabilities) would be $72,844.14.
As a general rule, I suppose you should avoid betting all combinations that are of greater value than the pool size. (Though that's quite a lax rule as it's likely you would share the pool with other winning bettors).
...just for interest's sake, the fair trifecta price for the three shortest runners would have been $34.37.
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