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20th January 2015, 12:33 PM
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Banned
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Join Date: Feb 2013
Posts: 755
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Correct me if I'm wrong any of you stats genuise's out there, but the odds of getting the trifecta (using Betfair back price) was 100 x 70 x 46 = 321,999:1 The trifecta paid about $5,000 from memory.
I collect Betfair data each day and have over 6 years worth. I have tables based on 1st favourites price, number of starters and price rank. I know the historical max back price winner for that period, of any combination. How often is a new record broken for one of those combinations? .....About every 2nd day!
That's why basing a system on historical data is flawed to an extent and you have to ensure that you have many more wins, than flaws, in your system argument.
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