Hahahaa, that's like waving a red flag at a bull Darky. Haven't been with them for awhile now. Banned from mentioning them!

Found an interesting stat from a CP post in 2004.

60% of races are won by a horse that ran 1st-4th last start
Also consider:
1st in at least one of its last two starts: 31%
2nd in at least one of its last two starts: 29%
That's a 60%er in my book.