The point is any one stat doesn't tell the full picture. On Saturday 15 out of 22 flat winners in Bris, Syd and Melb did not win their last start. Therefore, if you eliminated horses just because they didn't win last start - you miss out on a heap of winners. What one must do using stats is combine them and then they become powerful.

Horse A - Ran 8th last start, but won two starts back, drops 3.5kg from last run where it was only beaten 1.8 lengths after being trapped 3 wide without cover. Is also racing over its pet distance today - 1200m at Rosehill for instance after running over 1100m last start which is short of its best. Has barrier 5. Odds of 6/1.

Horse B - Won 3 starts in a row, but is rising 4.5kgs, has barrier 15 in a 1200m race at Rosehill, dropping back from 1400m to 1200m. Odds of 7/2.

I know which horse I would rather bet on!!!