21st January 2014, 09:34 AM
|
|
Member
|
|
Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 4,424
|
|
A ratchet system will magnify profits, but also losses.
I would run a test using flat liability and compare the profit/loss over sections of time. It's most likely that the peak in the graph was simply a better than average time and just after was a correction of sorts.
However, the Betfair markets are fluid and edges are constantly eroding, so that the market is becoming almost 100% accurate pre commission. We've lost the big traders which used to push prices, and so all that's left (by volume) are opinions.
It depends how much previous data you had, and how much current data you have as to if or when you bail out. If you're worried, sit it out recording results still if you can (as you are still in profit) and if it returns to the previous high, you'll lose that profit and possibly make a bigger loss getting back on, but your confidence will be restored.
Perhaps wait for the next downturn, but if you plan staying with it long term, it will all even out anyway.
|