From the Turf Accountant website I mentioned in another post, he lists what he says are the ten most reliable selection methods. He claims that this is the result of working through a large database over many, many years. Here they are:
1. DOUBLE TOPS.
Using the Sportsman Chartform mark the Top Place % and the Top AvPrize. A double top is where the same horse is either top of both or equal top.
2. ZIPFORM
The horse or horses with the "Zipform" * from the Sportsman.
3. COURSE/DISTANCE QUALIFIED.
To assess distance and course qualified horses add win % to Place % at course /distance 100 or above are qualified. e.g. 4 minor places from 4 starts qualified. 1 wins and 2 minor placings from 5 starts (20+60) not qualified but 2 wins and 1 minor placing from 5 starts (40+60) is qualified.
4. WOT.
From Wizard mark the 100% horses in the wrat and trat columns and mark the horse assessed at the lowest or equal lowest odds. A WOT horse is one marked for all three.
5. TURFIES TOP RATED.
Simply multiply the most recent finishing position by 5 - the next most recent finishing position by 3 - the next by 2 and the next by 1 and add them up the horse with the lowest or equal lowest total is the qualifier.
6. OCI'S.
Using the Sportsman Chartform mark the Top Three Place % and the Top three AvPrize including equal thirds. An OCI - Only Co-Incider is where one and only one horse in top three of both columns.
7. NINES QUALIFIED.
Simply total the best three finishing positions of last four starts any with a total of 9 or less qualify.
8. LAST START WINNERS.
Self explanatory.
9. FORM PATTERN.
Last four starts must show constant improvement or at least level ending in either Win or Second, each start other than fourth last must be in first 9.
e.g. 0882 qualifies 0021 does not. 6642 qualifies 6543 does not 0711 qualifies 1121 does not.
10. WIZARD FORM.
From Wizard check best form last 12 months and best recent form - only horses that top both these polls qualify.
These, he says, are the ten most reliable pointers to lots of winners (although not necessarily decent priced winners). Seems to contradict other stats I have seen sometimes, but some useful ideas here I think. Food for thought. Check out this old website:
http://tucows.ecopost.com.au/~turfacts/turfacts.html
Cheers
Hermes