Thread: win s/r
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Old 26th November 2013, 08:03 AM
Michal Michal is offline
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Hi Shifty,

To be completely honest, with the other information you provided I have grave concern about the success of your method. Don't get me wrong, I wish you all the best, however most punters totally ignore what I call the realities of betting when they square up to betting a long-shot system like yours.

In order for you to have any chance of success your betting must be automated. You have 375 bets a year from your sample, thats a lot of wasted time waiting to put the bets on as I also suspect that they are price filtered ?

In your sample I can guarantee you there will be a bank draw-down of longer then 367 bets. Meaning that you will, for a whole year be less then your previous bank high and possibly longer. (Run through your profit/loss analysis of your bets in time order.) Can you sustain that demoralising run and still bet each days selection never knowing when that magic run of rebound happens?

The Reality of betting is almost a law: Your real life betting will never pan out like your test.

I'll give you a few examples from my own life.

Running an automated long-shot system with selections each day I experienced the following: I had a run of outs of about 50, which was nothing unexpected, my internet went down and in that hour I was on the phone with support I missed 6 races, 5 of which were won by one of my long-shot selections. I missed out on over 70 units profit. I have never had an 'hour of power' like that before or since. Just a random event and of course it was followed by a further long run of outs.
Another time I was betting a system that required 2-3 bets per race, and wasen't automated. It too had a horid run the few days before. BUT it was fathers day and my family wanted to take me out , so we did go, and had a wonderful time the whole day. When I got home from the 23 qualified races on that Sunday I would have won 19 of them with the lowest win div of about $4.5.

Talk about character building! Those were obviously major ones, but your life is filled with many small events of similar nature. Many outside of your control; Cyber-horse (very reliable) for instance has now been down for 5 days including the weekend, that is a lot of form and races missed by anyone that uses their form. Regrettable, but that is life. Its not perfect and sterile like your test.

You would think that the punting gods were against us. But that is not the case, the Realities of betting simply states that you will miss bets and most likely winning bets at the most inopportune time if you have any life other then punting 24/7. Everyone has them! While each of these misses might not of themselves be the end of the system profit wise, they tend to be rather decimating to the mental stability of the punter. (I still look up to the gods and ask, 5 in one hour? REALLY? Are you kidding me? )

This is why these methods are up for grabs, professional punters will not touch them because of the volatility and small future prospects due to liquidity , meaning you will never have a shot at making a living out of it. PaulD01 talks about that.

Ok that's enough of the negatives. While the pros don't touch them doesn't mean that you can't do it, make it, enjoy the experience and earn a nice little side profit or have it as just one part of your strategy. You can! Especially if you are aware of and are prepared for the pitfalls along the way and are supper consistent with your application.

All the best;
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Michal - Ratings2Win Pty Ltd
R2W Axis - Axis is Australia's leading horse racing software and database;
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