25th November 2013, 06:31 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 1,522
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Its easy to work out:
You basically have a 100-8.4 = 91.6% chance of a loss.
For 1 loss the chance is 91.6%.
For 2 losses the chance is 0.916x0.916 = 0.916**2 = 83.9056
For 3 losses the chance is 0.916x0.916x0.916= 0.916**3 = 76.86
...
For n losses the chance is 0.916**n
Where ** = to the power of (available on all good calculators)
You then determine what you think is a longest losing streak. Is it 1% chance or smaller ?
you then substitute a losing streak in n and you get your result:
For 80 it is 0.916**80 = 0.09% chance. which is less then 1%.
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