
17th November 2013, 05:14 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 696
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I guess everyone should now have an understanding that the more events we invest the further we move from Equipartition, etc etc
This is why real statisticians compute the deviation from the mean.
If we tend to play even money propositions, the more we should become concerned with the deviation from equipartition.
As UB recounted the volatility of even money propositions on a daily basis.
Knowing from past results what our longest losing run will be, helps us to design the what length of betting series will be for these propositions. Published past results show that the typical longest losing run for this type of proposition will be 11.
Your betting series will now be 10 events, if you have past results break them into blocks of 10 events and record how many times you comeback to equipartition in each block of ten races.
Do this for as many races as you can. As the amount of times coming back to equipartition in a short term model is what then helps create your geometric progression model for this proposition.
Actually 12 parameters that helps us to invest short term in these propositions and to win long term.
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