Sadly I can't, but I will say this. Favorites win 33% of the time overall or thereabouts because of 1 factor imho - the very thing which is present in every race, meeting, racetrack, region, country, on every day of the week and any state of going.

Human nature

Coming back to your query, how good would it be to nail the 'maths' at this level and therefore be able to crack any number puzzle that comes our way, winning favorites included? My thoughts are that it is much simpler than an equation or statistical concept or method, all the complexity still present in the underlying answer however - something to be observed but not explained with the technology and wisdom we have to hand at present!

An initial filter or lens through which to look, perhaps?

LG

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The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB