Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Puntz
Enjoyed everyone of your posts davo, and I cannot agree more about the above snippet.
It be way cool to have simple light convos after the event on our respective system's result/failures etc.
My version of Value, is to Target for a 25 Unit profit where where the Cost of the bet does not exceed that Target, ( 100% ~Variable -). This also applies to Hedged bets and depending on Price, my statistics usually work better with 1-3 runners.
4 runners and you start to blow out the Value concept
|
Thanks a million Puntz. You've made my day!
You're target/value idea is the only way to go in my opinion. However I think if a horse is blowing from say 3/1 fav to 6/1 I am extremely worried if I am on that horse. Similarly a 6/1 horse blowing to 10/1 has the nerves tingling. On the other hand if a horse opens at 6/1 and comes in to 3/1 late, I don't think about it costing me $300 but rather, that winning feeling is increased immeasurably.
I am also much more confident if a horse in my system opens at a better price than I rated and doesn't move.
I go for max 2 bets at present (past 5 years) but I did dabble with up to 4 over previous years. You obviously have a lot more hits than if you pick one or two. A good selection method can show huge profits for months but when you have that run of roughies winning it doesn't take long to wipe out the profits.
I also went around 5 years back in the nineties where my rules were much looser and I had selections in up to 10 races out of the 32 or so.(betting in 4 states). Again I had some unbelievable runs, some up to 18 months. With 10 races it usually meant at least 20 bets and that's fine during the good times. However that bad run hit again and wiped me out!
It was then very difficult to tighten up the rules as it often meant eliminating past winners that paid great dividends. However that's what I did, and there were tears of blood as I went back through my form-guides and put a line through many10/1 winners that were no longer in my system.
Cheer mate and thanks again.