31st May 2013, 10:38 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 4,424
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I can work out the true odds of a horse running 2nd or 3rd for various prices and field sizes using statistics, and this will be accurate over thousands of races, BUT it will not be accurate for each single event.
In other words, one could not use this for overlay betting as each single event should have different odds of happening due to extra factors. This is why 1/5th the odds for placing first, second or third is not good for bookmakers because of savvy punters taking advantage of the calculated overlays for each event.
Hope this makes sense.
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