19th May 2013, 10:37 AM
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Member
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Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 225
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by domenic
Raven, I believe you are correct. I stopped trying to bet overlays about 10 years ago. The market is far more accurate these days than my assessed prices will ever be. I simply use my ratings to isolate the best chances in the race and then look at the market. I have found that my ratings work the best on distances up to 1400m. Anything over that distance there can be a lack of pace.
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Race 8 was a good example. My top 4 were:
Uncle George...........rating 125... $20 top fluc
Iseethingsyoudon't...r 124...........$4
Accrual...................r 123..........$6.50
Full Steam Ahead......r 122...........$6
So my top pick was $20. Was he really a better chance than say Accrual or Full Steam Ahead? If I had priced this race, given the close spread of ratings, I doubt I would have priced the winner at less than $4, so in that respect he was "unders", but he won! Taken as a group I could have outlayed $62 for a return of $100, which as you say Dom, is what's pertinent.
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