1st.& 2nd. FAVORITES

Based on SP prices the
1st.Fav wins 30%
2nd.Fav wins 15%
Total 45%
Based over 5000 races

In the Australian racing season of 1949-50 favs. won 32% of races (Turf Digest. Vol.3,No.2 Sep 1950).
Not much has changed in 50 yrs. In fact this is a statistic found the world over.

Favs. that won last start, won 35% of all races.
It drops away progressivly in line with it`s positioning last start.

Favs. up in class won 32% (surprising)
Favs. down in class won 19%
Favs. equal in class won 36%
Favs. that either won or finished within 2.2 lengths last start , won 32%

50% of winning favs. have not had a win at the course, this stat. would reveal a popular myth, that a fav. that has won at the track is a stronger conveyance than a non-course winner. If one adopted this theory , one would miss out on half the winners .

Last start beaten favs. who are favs. today have a strike rate of 18% (terrible).

If you could treat the race as a 2 horse race & you have the ability to separate them ,you would make a fortune .
Its a good idea not to back your selection unless you can get at least $3.30

A method of separation that seems to work as well as any ,is to back the one of the two, with the widest barrier.The crazy idea seems to work, check it out yourself.



I can see the idea working well with the Retirement Staking Plan using 1.5% Target with a min. divisor of 3.

The 1st. & 2nd Fav. is not a bad stat to start with.

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Cheers.