A subject I studied in depth for quite some time.
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Lord Greystoke
Then all that remains would be to achieve overs then, and this could be as simple as...
1. taking the bookies openers for starters (best/simplest 'ratings' and free)
2. adjusting for the % book bias = minimum acceptable price($Pm) - any suggestions for this percentage?
3. setting up a SP Bet via BF whereby SP > $Pm
LG
|
It's not as simple as that, the markets are dynamic.
There are many different reasons for odds movement.
Firstly you have the generic odds movement, which without any outside input, cause most of the market to drift to a better percentage.
Next are the profesional ratings overlays which are picked off fairly early.
Changes in state of track can also cause big movements.
Following on from the above comes the money, stable money and big hitter money. And that ranges from inside knowledge to set ups.
Sometimes inside knowledge and set ups do not go to plan, which is why
the strike rate improves, but a loss is still incurred.
If one were to simply adjust prices allowing for over round and make that the minimum acceptable price, I can guarantee you'll lose. The only way around this is to have a more accurate set of ratings than the bookie openers.
Mark Read's ratings were more accurate, and simply using his ratings and adjusting market percentages would produce a profit on overlays.
This is not the same case with prepost markets and bookies openers.
Because one cannot predict which way the market will go in general, one needs to think outside the box and think of other ways to cash in on market movements. Unless of course you have a set of ratings that outperform the opening bookmaker prices or prepost markets.