The shorter the odds - the higher the strike rate. At =>$1.50 the return is negative. This is not because of anything other than the rake. A $2 winner has odds of winning = to $2.36 and wins accordingly. At less than $1.50 the return nears breakeven and moves to positive because the mug punter starts to baulk
at only winning a little compared to the outlay. (yet they will put their money in the bank for a paltry 3%) But at $1.20 (off memory so don't shoot me) the strike rate is up to circa 82% (small base overall). In the case of Black Caviar and a 100% SR any bet is money for jam. I would like to see BC in a field where she is challenged. But BC is one off. We are in the business of continuity. The greater number of bets - the greater number of failures. So we have to (1) contain the failures and (2) get overs.