View Single Post
  #1  
Old 24th January 2013, 06:19 PM
The Ocho The Ocho is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Posts: 1,031
Question Advice sort on whether recovery would work with this

Following on from a couple of posts on the $1 a day thread I thought I would open up a new thread so you maths boffins (or anyone else for that matter) could let me (and anyone else considering something like this) know what the best way to go forward would be.

I was looking at a number of older posts trying to find an idea that I could implement on my bot and found one from Bhagwan that sort of worked but not quite and while researching his idea I stumbled on something that looks okay so far (I have checked back to December 1, 2012). I’ll keep checking back whenever I get some more time but, for now, I wanted to pose the following questions/thoughts.

The system is in front at level a stakes (something I didn’t initially think it would be).

I am checking trying to win $1 a day and then stopping at a winner SAW using back bets (I would want to start out at trying to win $5 a day). A stop loss for the day is required as I am using 100% recovery during the day, which is approximately 6x the amount to win. So if I were trying to win $1 the loss would be around $6 (depending on horse odds, etc). This would therefore be around a $30 loss when trying to win $5 a day. Bear in mind that sometimes odds on pops will be bet.

Raw stats
December – 30 days, 26 winning days, 4 losing days, Level stakes profit $9.89 ($1 amount to win)
January so far 24 days, 23 winning days, 1 losing day, Level stakes profit $18.73 ($1 amount to win)

So total 54 days with 49 winning days & 5 losing days, Level stakes profit $28.62 ($1 amount to win).

This is a 90.7% daily strike rate.

What I would like to know is would you just bet this level stakes or try and use recovery? My problem is that if some type of recovery is not used than maybe there will be 6 days before recovering just the one loss let alone any more losses.

The order of losses were as follows (for $1 a day):

-6.48
+1
-4.09
-1.81
+1
+1
-3.73
then 31 winning days in a row until yesterday
-4.27
and a win today
+1

I will just say that I wouldn’t be able to afford trying to recover 100% or maybe 50% as the losses would soon mount if there are more losses (bear in mind that the above losses would be multiplied by 5 if trying to win $5 a day with a liability of around $30). Trying to recover $6 in one hit would therefore leave me liable for $180 should another losing day happen ($6 recovery amount to win x $30 base liability).

I hope all that makes sense. Any help would be appreciated.

I’m thinking of slowly increasing the bets but in line with the liability rather than the amount to win per day and maybe just recovering one loss at a time.
__________________
Never give up on a dream just because of the time it will take to accomplish it. The time will pass anyway.”

― Earl Nightingale
Reply With Quote