
11th January 2013, 06:23 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,057
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APOLOGY, APOLOGY, APOLOGY
I was having a look at what would have happened if I had considered races <8 starters and I found out that I had used the wrong figures for Mornington on New Years Day. I had in fact used Morphettville figures!
The results up to and including yesterday (10th January) for fields >= 8 starters are:-
1st fav 64 bets 25 wins S/R 39.1% bank $73.30
2nd fav 64 bets 11 wins S/R 17.2% bank $66.10
3rd fav 63 bets 10 wins S/R 15.9% bank 59.50
Total bets 191 bank $198.90 so I am ahead ($7.90) of schedule!
If I include ALL races results are:-
1st fav 94 bets 29 wins S/R 30.9% bank $100.40
2nd fav 94 bets 20 bets S/R 21.3% bank $126.80
3rd fav 93 bets 17 wins S/R 18.3% bank $92.80
Total bets (All races) 281 bank $320.00 so I would be ahead ($39.00) of schedule as well.
Largest bets and longest losing runs for fields >= 8 starters are
1st fav = $6 - 5
2nd fav = $7 - 15
3rd fav = $18 - 15
Largest bets and longest losing runs for ALL fields are
1st fav = $59 - 7 (twice)
2nd fav = $49 - 16
3rd fav = $18 - 14
POT % (fields>=8) is 44.8%
POT % (All fields) is 35.7%
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