Quote:
|
Originally Posted by michaelg
I might have been a little too hasty in listing the results of this new method.
Looking at all selections that had 160 (and not 140 as originally listed) points or more regardless of field size (except those races with four runners or less so that a Place divvy is paid) seems to have performed better over the three days. The results are:
Sunday
13 selections for 10 winners for a return of $25.30
11 placegetters for a return of $15.30
Monday
2 selections for 0 winners
2 placegetters for a return of $3.50.
Tuesday
5 selections for 3 winners for a return of $8.90
4 placegetters for a return of $6.10
Today:
So far there's been 3 selections for one winner of $2.40 and one placegetter of $1.30.
Still to run:
Launceston 5/9.
Over the 3 days there were 20 selections for 13 winners for a return of $34.20, and 17 placegetters for a return of $24.90.
The Win strike rate is 65% and the POT is 71%.
The Place strike rate is 85% and the POT is 51%.
|
Here is my take - not trying to be 'smart', just make sense of the numbers...
Winners - Detail:
13 selections for 10 winners for a return of $25.30
2 selections for 0 winners
5 selections for 3 winners for a return of $8.90
So far there's been 3 selections for one winner of $2.40
Winners - Summary:
23 selections and 14 winners => SR 61% and POT 59%
Placings - Detail:
11 placegetters for a return of $15.30
2 placegetters for a return of $3.50
4 placegetters for a return of $6.10
So far there's been... one placegetter of $1.30
Placings - Summary:
23 selections and 18 winners => SR 78% and POT 14%
Combined - Summary:
POT = 37%
Proof: 62.8-(2x23))/(2x26) = 0.3652
Hopefully one of us is correct or it'll have to be another g n t for me and I am already palming a large one here!
LG
PS Assumes $1 each way. Now I wonder what the overall POT would be with a $1 WIN / $4 stake... $1 and $6 anyone? Don't get me started!