10th July 2012, 07:27 PM
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From reading many of the posts and investing some big hours into different rating strategies I've come up with a few things to consider
1. Determine your base value for a horse - How can one measure the success of a horse in a race without consideration to this. For example last start win has no bearing what so ever unless you can adjust his base to the current race day conditions. This adjustment to the race day needs to include throughts around
Barrier Trials- When reviewing the replays, look at the run in 200m or 400m or 600m sections. Trainers have a tendency to send the runner out to do a specific piece of work and then will ease down, the trial will show it finishes 7th but in fact very happy with the run.
Trackwork - Generally light work in the early parts of hte week and then increasing around Thursday. Look for horses around 12 sec per 200m or better. They are fit.
Develop a good Par Times theory - All tracks are different and variations need to apply through condition and rail changes. Just a simple example. Over a 1400m race at Kembla Grange on a good I have seen a Par value time of 82.12. Bunbury same distance and condition is 84.78
So if horse A runs 82.50 at Kembla vs 84.20 at Bunbury which is better??? Of course things need adjusting
Velocity ratings - Comparing sectionals from the early marks through the 600 / 400 / 200 can give a clue on how quick the pace was and how good the backrunners really were.
Position in Running - Need to calculate which horses have early pace based on the distance today.
Strength of the Race - Different classes different days need to be considered.
Price - The big factor.
Once you have a base rating and then can make the adjustments to the horses rating by these factors
Happy days!
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