Mr.Magic, I don't agree...if a jockey has a strike rate of 56% and has a losing sequence of hypothetically 20 unplaced runners..the odds of him placing at the next run are still 56%...I'll take those odds anytime. As his average is maintained in the longrun.And past results reflect a winning system, and so do current results which is the true test of any system.As for the future,unless the strike rate and average dividend drops below expectation, I can only see profits. I am aware however that should a jockeys consistency fall below par for a long period ,then I may change my jockey list in the future - which I said at the beginning of my system about reassessment.But for the time being I am happy.Even though Munce and Prebble had shocking days on Saturday, I watched their losing rides carefully and was still very impressed.Sure enough they bounced back on Sunday.
Becareful, see what you are saying but the profits from an extra good day maintain the bad times. If I got a run of 4 sets of outs in a row,that's 16 unplaced runners in a row!!!(never had it to date and statistically improbable, but not impossible) I would still be ahead even on yesterdays results without eating into previous profits and this is what maintains the system.
You are not taking into account the very low strike rate of a run of four losses in a row.
It has occurred once in the last 76 bets.

However, I must add this...becareful you are the only person that has put some effort into logically explaining your point of view, and provided mathematical statistics to back up your argument. Congratulations because you are not outright bagging the system and are openminded enough to be interested how it all works and anxious to see more results.

[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-05-13 11:36 ]

[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-05-13 11:40 ]

[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-05-13 11:46 ]