View Single Post
  #16  
Old 6th August 2009, 09:57 AM
Shaun Shaun is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Western Australia
Posts: 3,403
Default

My data base is not uptodate is about 2 years old but still should have good info so i will start with basic results
<8 Days Break
Sel 28338
Wins 3048
SR 10.76%
Return 24752.8
P.O.T -12.65%

The average divi for these winner was $8.12 with the min $1.10 and max $181.50 and as we all know money is a great indication of chance so lets bring in a min price we will start with the ave

<8 Days Break
<$8
Sel 9355
Wins 2156
SR 23.05%
Return 9073.19
P.O.T -3.01%

This improved things a bit so where to from here, lets have a look at close up runners lets say with in 3 lngths.

<8 Days Break
<$8
<3
Sel 6775
Wins 1624
SR 23.97%
Return 6462.10
P.O.T -4.62%

This reduced everything overall but increased our loss, lets try 2 lengths.

<8 Days Break
<$8
<2
Sel 5486
Wins 1374
SR 25.05%
Return 5297.60
P.O.T -3.43%

Not a big change lets go lower.

<8 Days Break
<$8
<1
Sel 3780
Wins 1008
SR 26.67%
Return 3744
P.O.T -0.95%

Lets say ran 1st or 2nd

<8 Days Break
<$8
1...2
Sel 4053
Wins 1072
SR 26.45%
Return 3997.90
P.O.T -1.36%

Not a great deaL has changed maybe last start winners.

<8 Days Break
<$8
1
Sel 2074
Wins 597
SR 28.78%
Return 2145
P.O.T 3.43%

Ok here we have a profit over 7 years of data maybe small but yet a profit, see the amount of selections has reduced by over half but the winners have also reduced, so we see that last start winners can make a profit with the above rules, lets see if we can improve this.


we will reduce the price to less that $6
<8 Days Break
<$6
1
Sel 1648
Wins 536
SR 32.52%
Return 1730.20
P.O.T 4.93%

An by going to $5 max

<8 Days Break
<$5
1
Sel 1325
Wins 473
SR 35.70%
Return 1392
P.O.T 5.07%

How about $4

<8 Days Break
<$4
1
Sel 986
Wins 396
SR 40.16%
Return 1054.50
P.O.T 6.95%

This tells me price has a big difference on returns as you can see but with just over 100 selections a year i am sure many punters would become bored, lets increase the days to 14

<15 Days Break
<$4
1
Sel 6226
Wins 2167
SR 34.81%
Return 5642.70
P.O.T -9.37%

Good strike rate but that about it, i had a look at a few other days but less than 7 looked the best, i had a look at runners from a spell but it reduced the runners,winners and overall profit.

Here i added only 4yo and up

<8 Days Break
<$4
1
4yo+
Sel 643
Wins 259
SR 40.28%
Return 704.80
P.O.T 9.61%

Interesting to note this also made a profit for the place
<8 Days Break
<$4
1
4yo+
Sel 643
Wins 443
SR 68.90%
Return 646.50
P.O.T 0.54%

Lets just have 3yo-7yo

<8 Days Break
<$4
1
3...7
Sel 860
Wins 352
SR 40.93%
Return 939.20
P.O.T 9.21%

All these figures are based on TAB prices

P.S.
I thought i would make this change to the above and change from last start winners to those less than 1 length

<8 Days Break
<$4
<1
3...6
Sel 1475
Wins 588
SR 39.86%
Return 1611.30
P.O.T 9.24%

One thing this shows is age does effect runners
Reply With Quote