29th May 2009, 02:40 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 4,421
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Our races, half SP - no way, sorry.
Over time the shorter you lay below the pre off Betfair price, the more it's exactly breakeven (before the commission demons).
I have seen quite a few 1.20 and shorter get rolled, but it's the eye that catches them.
I'm sure some days it's profitable, but not in the longrun.
If a horse is at evens and you lay it at $1.50, you're going to cop a lot of winners - too many to the ratio of losers.
If you know something else, like the horse always breaks first or is a leader, then you'd have an extra edge. This is where intense form study comes in handy.
But for mine, if the horse is trading at $2.00 on Betfair and is $1.90 with the bookies, my lays go in at $1.90 and $1.85.
The only exception is if I know a leader has a bad habit of leading and getting swallowed up late, then I dabble in the $1.20 to $1.05 range.
But that area is just a bit of interest to keep things exciting.
If someone wanted to have a go at the longer priced horses, but still in the market, say the bookies have it at $4.50 and betfair have it at $5.50, I'd recommend laying at no shorter than $5.00.
But the shorties is where the profit is at, horse is sittiing just behind the bolter and second fave ready to pounce, they round the home turn, horse trades at $1.90 and $1.85 as the callers says "he's cantering behind the leaders and pulls out to make his run" only it's a long straight and he runs out of steam or gets blocked and runs a length second.
That's how I get matched usually.
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