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Originally Posted by AngryPixie
In an earlier incantation of my lay method I was placing a "stop loss" on the shorteners occasionally, and again you could probably automate this. I'm really trying to make my approach as simple as possible now, and I've learned from experience that the best "stop loss" is to place the lay just before the jump or not at all. Drifting after the lay doesn't worry me in the slightest.
Pix
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Laying just before the jump is almost equal to taking the average lay price available. It's not the worst you can do, but it's not the best either.
If I were to lay them just before the jump, I wouldn't make as much or even suffer a slight loss I think.
In the case where you can't estimate the correct price, then taking the last price is o.k.
In my case, I have staggered wagers to percentage of bank maximum that ensures I get at least better than the average price.
That is why I concentrate on the short end of the market, because I can accurately assess the longterm true price and the fluctuations are not savage to my detriment.
The difference between betting blind on the tote and blind on Betfair, is that you must end up with whatever they give you on the tote, whereas with Betfair you can specify what you want and load your lay bets to advantage if there is a crunch in the price.
It's no secret how my staking is done, so I'll share it.
For overseas races, I take the prepost price and deduct 10% on Even money to odds on.
I deduct 20% if there is a scratching which is in the betting market.
I then just load my bets at these prices for an even money horse:
1.80
1.78
1.76
1.74
1.72
1.71
etc.
Why? Because I know that longterm, anything less than 10% less than prepost on these shorties is longterm profit. The more that's matched at shorter and shorter prices, the bigger the overlay (underlay in reverse for laying). A price crunch does not affect me longterm.