Thread: Staking Plea
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  #50  
Old 29th March 2006, 01:05 PM
KennyVictor KennyVictor is offline
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Mt Tamborine
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Hi Shaun,

Chance of winning and Decimal odds I'm sure you've got right. Number of trials is the number of bets you want to simulate the system over. Maybe you could enter in the number of bets you expect to make over a year.

The edge is the profit you can expect from getting an expected divvy (as entered) every how ever many bets (chance of winning percentage as entered) this won't change how ever many bets coz you still should be winning at the same rate overall.

The simulator then runs a random number generator to see if you would have won or lost each bet in the number of trials you set.
The profit comes from the result of the random number generator allowing you how ever many wins from the number of bets you selected.
The maximum drawdown is the drop from your highest point (after a win probably) to your following lowest point. This is important because if you started betting on the day when your highest point had been reached you may have been unlucky and got to your lowest point before you started winning again. If the drawdown is bigger than your bank it's return to go, don't collect $200.
Longest run of outs is just that maximum number of consecutive lost bets.

Duritz suggested you run it a few times because rather like horse racing the random element can give you better or worse outcomes over the same number of bets. This gives you a range of likely maximum drawdowns and allows you to judge the percentage of your bank you feel like risking.

Hope this helps
KV
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