28th March 2006, 09:41 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 2,428
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Expected run of outs for 35% is 16
Based on 3 lots of 10,000
I believe one should have a bank of 3.0 x the longest theoretical run of outs.
In this case 48 , if betting level stakes.= 2% of bank.
1% of bank as mentioned prior would be even safer.
50 Point Staking Plan
Heres a safe staking plan one might like to experiment with.
Divisor starts at 50 divided into target of $100.
With a Starting Bank $200
Deduct win dividend price off the divisor after each win & deduct the profit off the target after each win so as to calculate the next bet.
Start from the beginning as soon as half of the target is won , in this case $50
This helps prevent the bets from becoming too large for the bank to cope with.
e.g.
Tar---Divisor--O/L---Dividend---P/L
100-----50-----2-----L
102-----50-----2-----L
104-----50-----2---w$11.00---+20
84------39-----2-----L
86------39-----2---w$6.00---+10
76------33-----2---w$14.00---+26
50------19-----3-----Objetive reached..We would now rule off & start from the beginning because we have reached our objective of reaching half the Target figure.
If one wants to start with a lower divisor (not recomended) , one will see how the bets become larger after a run of outs , so be prepared for it, because it will come , no matter how strong a selection method may be, its just part of punting.
Remember ---Punting does not owe us a living.
Cheers.
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Cheers.
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