View Single Post
  #1  
Old 14th March 2006, 10:57 AM
dingoboy dingoboy is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 241
Default ITS YOURS FOR FREE !!

OK,

After 400 bets, taken LIVE at 5 minutes before jump, no dollars on them but it was not tested backwards, the bets were written down and put into a spreadsheet as i would do normally.

Selection Process:

UNITAB RADIO selections

A:the first three runners, nothing else.
B: If at five minutes before jump the radio tab 1st selection is paying MORE than 3, preferably 3.5, this is a selection.
C:If Radio tab selection above is below this, look at selection 2, if this is 3.5 or to 11, this is a selection.
D:if the first two arent in the window, go to radio tab 3rd selection, same critria as step C,

staking:
I used two methods under trial, Flat stakes and divisor.

The flat stakes worked fine, divisor was a bit tough as there was one run of 13 outs in a row, average was about 4.

Filters/twists i used:
dont bet in races that have a fav paying 1.5 or similar, leave it alone.
If radio tab selection was say 16 win/3.5 place, i would take it for place only, better s/r.

RESULTS:

400 races.
S/R 26 %
AV DIV 4.64

NOTES:

i initially wanted a "straight out no thought" system, ie JUST TAKE radio tab 1st selection, but it was a looser, that is where this has its faults, one needs to ;pick" the next best one from the other two selections, some may find higher s/r, some may find it lower,

The dividends are calculated on unitab, i would immagine if one searches for fixed odds, one may do better, sometimes even "best tote".

I would have a look before putting money on it. This is no sure thing, its just 400 bets results, it may curve out eventually and be a looser, BUT.

as i said, i initially looked into this with a divisor target bet plan, half way through i realised that progressive staking/loss chase wasnt needed and flat stakes were ok.

my logic:
Simple betting,
there has to be a winner in every race, regardless of class/distance/track/jockey.
accesability to the average punter (tips/selection)
If favs win 30% of the time, and if a punter took the fav everytime, he would loose, if we find good value (fixed odds or best tote) our dividends are improved and if we only bet the fav sometimes, well there is results from 400 bets.

Have a look, some will hate it, some might be interested.
I personally am going to stick with it and run 100 bet sequence with a big divisor, profit will be made over 100 bets rather than the first.

Good luck
Reply With Quote