29th December 2005, 11:33 AM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Bundy
Posts: 292
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by jfc
My figures from 1998 to August 2005 return a ROT of only 89.9%.
So which is right - my POT of -10.1% versus Nanook's +53.9%.
First I should remind most about how I produce my figure.
I stake each selection in inverse proportion to (non-fractional) SP - i.e. 1/SP.
I payout on Best( SP, NSW ).
This avoids the big nagging problem of fluke longshots distorting small samples.
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Hi JFC,
Could you explain that in plain english please.
I dont get - "inverse proportion to (non-fractional) SP - i.e. 1/SP"
and what are you doing that aims to avoid the supposed trouble of fluke longshots.
Yeah i said supposed,it seems silly to me to have a system that tries to latch on to longshots and then when they arrive treat them as flukes,we are dealing with first up horses,of course there is going to be some very big priced winners. |