hi

that all sounds great , but you when combine all those "facts" , guess what, it doesn't happen

I don't believe I said they did! "interesting" is the key word, make what you will of the figures.

I believe that the analysis of statistical information as provided by Privateer is the basis of establishing a sensible betting strategy. So "dinodog" you say "when you combine those facts and guess what, it doesn't happen" that is not entirely correct - not simply black & white like you imply. It would be dependent on your own interpretation of the facts as they appear and your own application of them to your strategy. Of course it is not feasible to base a strategy on the analysis of one days racing but over say a year the information collated would be invaluable to any punter.

Good work Privateer.

Ryan

Finishing in the top 5 last start and having a place strike rate greater than 50% are crucial in my system. Are you using any particular software to run these figures Privateer? I'm a little intrigued as my ratings are very manual.

12% of winners had a place strike rate of less than 40%

31% of winners had a place strike rate of less than 50%

28% of winners were listed at better than 10/1 in newspaper markets :smile:

28% of winners were not in the top 5 in average prizemoney won

42% of winners did not finish 1 or 2 at previous start

25% of winners rised more than 2kg in weight from previous start

17% of winners did not finish in the first 5 at their previous start

Just another way of looking at it...

Now, I just want to get at those winners above between 5/1 to 10/1 at the bookies... reliably- say 40% strike rate. Then I can turn pro punter!

I'll tell you what "Elton", you use your stats and I'll use mine. Your comments emphasise losers and negativity, a surefire way to wind up broke!

I had intended to provide these stats on a regular basis as an aid to fellow punters attempting to beat the TAB/Bookies. Obviously that is a waste of time.

No, my work is also manual and took me an hour to work out. Your method sounds like that of a friend of mine, a very successful punter.

Privateer's figures have merit.
Anyone who doesn't want to pour over form for hours can get some nice winners backing horses who meet the following criteria;
1. Win rate 25%+ and place rate 50%+
2. Placed last start
3. Top 5 in average $$$
4. Barrier in the inside half
5. Placed 50%+ distance starts
6. Last start 21 days or less.
Sounds a lot but if you back a horse that meets 5 of the 6 criteria you won't be far away.
EG today 4 selections Syd,Mel,Bris
Sydney - Hot Riff and Glenn ( one placed, one unplaced )
Brisbane - Raw Instinct (2nd) Mr Omega and Nauders ( both won around $5 - $6 mark )
Melbourne - no qualifiers
Takes an hour or so to do 3 meetings. I use it if I'm having a few fun bets where I haven't done the form and sometimes I wonder why I just don't stick to it solely!!

Hi Privateer
Don't get on yer high horse too soon! I was not being negative- I was merely looking at your stats in the light of possible high value/price winners.

The most obvious stats are also the ones which makes a horse so popular and the price down to no value/even money. Agreed? But for a "significant" number of winners, their obvious stats made them look poorer choices, and thus they won with good prices.

This is where good profits are waiting for those who can identify some other (quirky?) stat or fact to pick these longer shots.

Quite possibly the case Privateer, as I bought my system in the UK. I've tried to enhance it, but "it ain't broke" as the saying goes.