Small Fields
 

Here's a possible new angle with small fields -

1) Neural categories of CP, $ and Dist on a setting of 3, all others on 0,
2) Bet all selections under $10 in the resulting market,
3) At least three horses to be at double figures in the resulting market,
4) Maximum of 9 runners,
5) No Maidens, and all horses with a minimum of 9 career starts,

I've looked the results from last Friday, (6 days). The Betfair results include commission deducted.

Friday
Outlay $47
TAB return $51.50
Betfair return $58.89

Saturday
Outlay $58
TAB return $65.80
Betfair return $$81.72

Sunday
Outlay $32
TAB return $34.40
Betfair return $40.78

Monday
Outlay $12
TAB return $3.70
Betfair return $3.64

Tuesday
Outlay $31
TAB return $42.80
Betfair return $54.36

Today (the faves unfortunately won almost all the qualifying races).
Outlay of $17
TAB return $12.30
Betfair return $12.83.

By my reckoning, the results over the six days are:

Outlay $197
TAB return $210 for a POT of 6%
Betfair return $251 for a POT of $27%.

The winner was struck in 48 of the 55 races.

If I get time tomorrow I will list the selections.

Sounds very interesting michaelg.

Don't forget that on Betfair 6.5% will need to be deducted from all winning races and that, should this actually come good and you (or someone else) starts betting big then they will be up for 1.2% turnover charge on EVERY back bet (even losing bets).

It doesn't sound like much but it does add up for something like this where multiple back bets are made on each race.

Good luck.

Hi, T.O.

I deducted the 6.5% commission from the Betfair results. In fact, because for convenience I deducted the commission from the winning "dividend" which is inaccurate because it should only be deducted from the profit. The commission was even deducted when the winner was struck but paid less then the outlay, so the real results would be slightly better than I quoted. I put it down to lazyness...

I must say that even a few horses fancied in the real market were not snared but I was quite surprised at the high strike rate and the prices at some of the winners. I also had a look at applying Don Scott's market and that in the Tele market but the neural market was vastly superior... however this may just be coincidence and little merit.

I notice I made a mistake with the rules. At that time I was was rushing to have something else done and had to leave me computer not knowing how long I'd be away from it, and didn't have time to double check the rules.

Rule 5 should read all horses must have had at least 3, not 9 career starts.

Let's see how today's selections go.

Sun Coast
3/1, 2, 4, 5
4/1, 2, 3, 5
5/2, 3, 5, 7

Gosford
7/1, 2, 3, 8

Penola
3/1, 2, 3, 6
4/3, 4, 5
6/2, 3, 4

Albany
3/1, 2, 3, 5

I'm backing them for $5 on S.P. An outlay of $150.