Each-Way?
 

The Lay D.S's Outsiders method has depressed me to such an extent that I've looked at an each-way method that has been floating around in my mind for some time but never looked at the results:

1) Default neurals,
2) Omit the CF, TIM and DLR algorithyms,
3) Include WT on a setting of 3,
4) Minimum of 8 starters,
5) Minimum of 140 neural points.

The results since Sunday are quite promising:

Sunday
19 selections for 10 winners paying $31.50
19 selections for 16 placegetters paying $21.60

Monday
4 selections for 1 winner paying $4.10
4 selections for 3 placegetters paying $5.00

Tuesday
8 selections for 4 winners paying $12.80
8 selections for 6 placegetters paying $9.30.

So over the past three days there's been 11 winners from the 31 selections for a UNITAB profit of $17.40 which is a strike rate of about 100% and a POT of about 56% .

Place betting has shown a 83% strike rate and a 15% POT.

Today there have so far been 9 selections for one winner of $2.40 and 5 placegetters for a return of $7.40.

The remaining selections are:

Ascot
4/3

Launceston
3/10
4/4
5/9
6/4

I might have been a little too hasty in listing the results of this new method.

Looking at all selections that had 160 (and not 140 as originally listed) points or more regardless of field size (except those races with four runners or less so that a Place divvy is paid) seems to have performed better over the three days. The results are:

Sunday
13 selections for 10 winners for a return of $25.30
11 placegetters for a return of $15.30

Monday
2 selections for 0 winners
2 placegetters for a return of $3.50.

Tuesday
5 selections for 3 winners for a return of $8.90
4 placegetters for a return of $6.10

Today:
So far there's been 3 selections for one winner of $2.40 and one placegetter of $1.30.

Still to run:
Launceston 5/9.

Over the 3 days there were 20 selections for 13 winners for a return of $34.20, and 17 placegetters for a return of $24.90.

The Win strike rate is 65% and the POT is 71%.
The Place strike rate is 85% and the POT is 51%.

Here is my take - not trying to be 'smart', just make sense of the numbers...

Winners - Detail:
13 selections for 10 winners for a return of $25.30
2 selections for 0 winners
5 selections for 3 winners for a return of $8.90
So far there's been 3 selections for one winner of $2.40

Winners - Summary:
23 selections and 14 winners => SR 61% and POT 59%

Placings - Detail:
11 placegetters for a return of $15.30
2 placegetters for a return of $3.50
4 placegetters for a return of $6.10
So far there's been... one placegetter of $1.30

Placings - Summary:
23 selections and 18 winners => SR 78% and POT 14%

Combined - Summary:
POT = 37%
Proof: 62.8-(2x23))/(2x26) = 0.3652

Hopefully one of us is correct or it'll have to be another g n t for me and I am already palming a large one here!

LG

PS Assumes $1 each way. Now I wonder what the overall POT would be with a $1 WIN / $4 stake... $1 and $6 anyone? Don't get me started!

PSS Should read:

Combined - Summary:
POT = 37%
Proof: (62.8-(2x23))/(2x26) = 0.3652

Cheers LG

Hi, L.G.

I didn't include today's results in the overall calcs...I should have mentioned it. I assume this is what you did?

I'm confused with your calcs in the Proof section. Having been educated in another country (Trinidad) our portrayal of maths is different to yours. For example, we didn't know (and probably still don't know) what "< " and ">" means. However we are cluey about the real important issues in life, such as how to hit sixes at cricket and score unbelievable goals at football, although Australia beat Trinidad at the only time they met.

Although I'm a Trinidadian deep down I will always support Oz at football whoever they play, but I might not have the same attitude when W.Indies play Oz at cricket.

=> (IN - OUT) / OUT = POT ?

I am sure there are much more important things in life than knowing what < and > is, although a little less of the bad things and more of the good, may come close?

LG

PS yup, added today's interim results but was kinda thrown by Post 1 where you mentioned a POT of 100%. Did my head in a bit, or was that the g n t ?

L.G. - sorry about the 100% error. I don't know how I missed it when I double-checked the posting, gotta be more careful.

I'll give the method a go today:

M.Valley
1/1
6/2

Albany
1/2

Seymour
4/10
6/1

Wyong
1/7
4/5

Rocky
3/4

I'm omitting "NTD" races, the divvies are too skinny.

From yesterday's 4 selections there were two winners returning $3.20 and three placegetters returning $4.20

Four selections today:

Moonee Valley
3/5

Ipswich
3/7

Lismore
4/5

Wangaratta
4/12

1 and 4 perhaps, Michael?

LG