Is this logical thinking!
 

I'm trying to get some thoughts on an approach I'm going to tackle.

I've managed to obtain some data from 1999 right through to 2012.

Lets say if I run every result I get a loss of 15%. Base it on unitab

Now if I run one filter (Runs this Prep)
Results may be as follows

1st up runners 27% LOT
2nd up runners 17% LOT
3rd up runners 5% LOT
4th up runners 8% LOT
5th up runners 17% LOT
6th up runners 18%LOT
7th up runners 13% LOT

Lets assume that the samples may change from each runner but there is enough data to say these figure will remain constant into the future.

Now we run another filter say sex of horse

Colts - 16% LOT
Fillies - 14% LOT
Mares - 13% LOT
Stallions - 17%LOT
Geldings 15% LOT

Now if we combine Geldings and 3rd up runners together and have (15% LOT) and (5%LOT) and the results come back as a 6% LOT.

Should you expect the LOT to be 10% and if it is less than 10% you are seeing this combination underbet?

The same can be said if I combined Colts (16%) and 1st up runners (27%) I should see 21.5%POT. Lets say the results come back as 23% LOT. This may mean the combination is overbet to its true value.

I think if you have enough data then filters on there own will never change in the long term. You have seen this with LOT of favourites.

When you start with a combination of filters you run the risk of having not enough data to support the long-term results. Hence if you have 8 filters you really run into trouble as you might be starting to bet when the system is on a high and about to drop below its true average value.

Maybe this only works with strike rates on filters and the Profit / Loss on turnover is always out of our control

If I got too much sun today at golf and this makes no sense please ignore :)

Cheers

Unfortunately doesn't work that way Vortech, you can't simply combine the two filters and think they meet in the middle.

As an example Fillies may be better with more prep so when you combine them with 4 start thats why the LOT isn't precisely in the middle and so on. Hope that helps.

Yeah makes sense and really a stupid post when you think about it.

Basically if all filters standalone were making a loss and if you took the average LOT in combination how would any combination make a profit.

Vortech, if I were still to comment on this forum I would say this, and only once:
Pick one filter and see how it works. Then pick an other and do the same, then combine the two and see what happens? An so forth ...

I know, it takes a long time but this method pays off.
KISS!
Good luck with it.
Don't know how B Selector works these days, I only ever used Price Predictor in the DOS days.

Exactly where I am at.

The combinations of just two alone can be close to 300.

30 minutes per test and you get very tired.

12 years ago I devoted a year to test my theories (wrote my own software) to find out what I wanted to know. Paid a motza for data in those days too.
Takes dedication and time.

Never looked back.
Beats 9 to 5 or whatever hours you work.

Instant millionaire? Don't even think about it.
Making a good living? Oh yes.

Racing changed in the meantime? Probably, but my system/rating still works the same.

Every horse still has to run the same distance carrying the allocated weight with a little man/women doing his/her thing on it's back according to instruction. (wherever they come from?)

Good luck

Here is a little trick for you Vortech, run a test on all runners with no filters for a period of say 6 - 12 months then run Analyse Last Test and get the CSV file.

Now you have all the data you need to create a spreadsheet with a few IF statements to run your various tests. The results aren't always 100% perfect on the spreadsheet but you end up getting a good idea to then punch the filters back into Bet Selector to do a proper test.

Trust me when I say it saves a heap of time when you want to test a number of single filters over the same data.

I actually created a spreadsheet with every single filter that Bet Selector has to offer but due to the size of the file it takes forever to load but once it loads I can change any setting I want and get the results instantly.

Where is this place...

Land of the Giants?

LG

Thanks Lomaca - Without giving away your rules or current theories what was your approach to knowing what was successful and what was unsuccessful.

Not a bad idea thanks.