The Schmile's value-added victors
 

Hi Team,

I'm slightly bored on this casual Tuesday, so I've come up with an idea.

On selected races, add up the prices from **************, Neurals and Don Scott worksheets then divide by 3. This is the minimum price we will accept.

Example:
************** price: $3.8, Neurals $6, DS $5
Minimum acceptable is: 3.8 + 6 + 5 / 3 = $4.9

I'm only listing horses under $6 for this method. I will list the horse number then the acceptable price.

Let's see how we go today....

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Echuca
Race 7 / 1 $4.8

Mackay
Race 2 / 2 $5.4, 4 $5, 6 $3.8

Cessnock
Race 8 / 1 $4.6, 5 $5, 7 $4.2

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Here's how I worked it out:

Echuca 7
W2: 1 4, 3 7, 6 11, 8 11, 9 4
NR: 4, 21, 8, 5, 6
DS: 6.5, 9.5, 11, 6.5 16 / 1 $4.8

Mackay 2
W2: 1 9, 2 6.5, 3 4.6, 4 2.25, 5 4.6, 6 3.2
NR: 7, 4.4, 2.3, 9, 17, 6
DS: 301, 5.5, 19, 4, 31, 2.7 / 2 $5.4, 4 $5, 6 $3.8

Cessnock 8
W2: 1 5, 2 4.2, 5 5, 7 2.8, 8 9
NR: 3.7, 4.8, 6, 7.5, 21
DS: 5.5, 26, 4, 2.7, 301 / 1 $4.6, 5 $5, 7 $4.3

(The formatting has gone slightly skewiff. Next to the ************** figures (W2) I have listed the horse number then the price. Below that on the DS and NR lines only the price is listed)

As usual all comments are VERY MUCH appreciated, preferably of the positive/constructive variety. :)

Just missed in Mackay race 2 with number 6 going down by 0.2L as an overlay, starting at $5.06 on Betfair SP.

Hehe I was getting excited about this :)

Seems like a soundish idea tho.

Hi Toil,

What's that saying about one swallow.....:)

Demanding prices generally $3.5+ one can expect a 15-25% strike rate, so there's a fair chance that there'll be a large run of outs somewhere in the mix. It may also end up making a good lay method. Who knows?

Echuca Race 7 was just run and no. 1 did nothing. So far there have been 3 overlay bets for no return.

The price of the winner in race 2 at Mackay was ridiculous due to DS rating it at $301, as it was first-up. I'll be focussing on races with max 2 first-uppers, preferably not in the first 3 in the market.

Only one race to go at Cessnock. Let's see.

Just applied the idea to Mackay Race 4.

Mackay 4
W2: 1 2.8, 2 2, 4 4, 6 6
NR: 3.1, 4, 10, 26
DS: 5.5, 4.6, 7.5, 401 / 1 $3.8, 2 $3.6

No. 1 won at $4.11 SP (3.90 after commission) with no.2 unplaced at $2.96.

I won't include this in the results, just for interests sake as it was a class 2 race.

Hi TheSchmile,

Since I've got your attention, what s/r can you expect from less then $3.5 and is it possible to make money in this price range?

And what if you only took this price range for your top selection even though it maybe rated a higher price, could that increase your s/r and possibly your profit.

I know nothing about this sorta thing, I only know how to read a runners form basically.

I'll have to assign some prices to my ratings and look for value if thats the only way to do it.

This can be a frustrating game, at Sandown my top rated won 5/6 times but Mooney Valley Cox plate day only 1/6, 4 of the other top raters did place but their place prices were below $2 checked a couple other meetings out and noticed anything starting under like $4 was scoring quite often but not a great deal of bets, maybe just a couple at the meeting.

Hi Toil,

Whatever the average price for your selections is, say $3.60, divide that number by 100.

So 100 divided by 3.6 = 27 or 27% strike rate.

This is a reasonably rough figure and assumes you were betting into a 100% book.

Without knowing anything about your ratings I would advise picking the results apart with a fine tooth comb. You might find the cream is at the lower end of the prices.

The more exposed the form and higher class of race, generally the more accurate your ratings will be. Study Garyf's posts, along with Iomaca.

Don't be discouraged by 1/6 then 5/6 results, this is natural. Perhaps your ratings will not end up profitable at the Valley long-term? Perhaps this was an abberation and you'll be 5/6 at the Valley next time?

Results
 

A bit bleak on the win side of things with 0 from 5.

The place fared a little better returning 5.73 from 5 bets, with a strike rate of 3 from 5.

Win: Out 5 In 0 P/L -5 SR 0%
Place: Out 5 In 5.73 P/L + .73 SR 60% POT 14.7%

Interestingly the two winners that beat the overlay selections were both first-uppers. Hmmmm....

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For interest sake, the two 'underlays' lost today at $3.90 and $3.30 respectively.

Lays Out 2 In 3.87 P/L +1.87 SR 100% POT 93.5%

All results include Betfair commission.

I'll try my best to at least do NSW and VIC tomorrow.

Hope you found it interesting and have a lovely night.

Hope I found it interesting??

Greatness.

LG

Thanks for the reply TheSchmile.

I'll check those posts out.