Favourite Stats Vs Non Fav Stats
 

Hi there, its a little while since I visited this forum, but I know a lot of you out there have a lot of statistics at your fingertips. I've been looking at betting against the favourite lately, and would be very interested in some general statistics relating to the following:

% of favs that win say in the sp range of less than and incl $2

% of favs that win in the sp range of over $2 and up to $2.90

% of favs that win in the sp range of $3 and over

And the other thing I'd be interested to know is, which I would think would be difficult to find out.....% of favs that win that are a noteable drifter in the market

Any stats along the above lines would be appreciated.

Regards
Paul

Hi Paul,

In races where NSW tab has a pool we are betting on the SP favorite.

<= $2.00 Strike rate 51.46%, SP returned 90.16%, NSW tab return on same races 93.06%. 7345 races

2.01 - 2.99 Strike rate 36.53%, SP returned 90.71%, NSW tab return on same races 90.78%. 15380 races

>= $3.00 Strike rate 24.94%, SP returned 89.42%, NSW tab return on same races 88.08%. 21784 races

Interestingly the figures since 1/1/3 are all slightly better for SP amount returned (half to 1 percent).

Only thing I can get from this is bet the real shorties on the TAB and the longer ones SP!! Hope it means more to you.

KV

Thanks KV,

Thats very interesting stats, the odds on/even money fav ones dont surprise me, I thought they would be around the 50% mark. Naturally you cant win by backing those as you would need $2 just to break even.

The theory I am looking at is when the fav eases in the betting, (following IAS) to a price beyond the $3 mark and then backing the next 3 or 4 runners in the betting if I can make a profit. And using the Austote betting, finding the prices are much more generous when outside the fav compared to nswtab prices.

I guess it would be rather difficult to come up with a stat as to how often this occurs, but I am finding a lot of returns, when I randomly sit here on an afternoon and watch the flucs.

Open for further comments,....????

Regards
Paul