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My NRL Tipping
I've been playing around with some figures on NRL and came up with a system using the stats for loonger term and shorter term periods. I then use these to come up with a high/low chance rate for each team.
Although the Charity sheild is not really played the same way I am going to give it a go. South Sydney : $2.01 - $2.05 St George : $1.96 - $1.98 I also want to take a safe bet and a risky bet. So two banks. Risky Bet : St George -3.5 = $3.25 Safe Bet : St George +12.5 = $1.41 Im not worried if this is completely wrong for tonights game but will be interested to see how it goes |
UB, do you have any stats with line betting in the NRL? I found a site for AFL with results for last year an 2011 and will see if I can find any patterns.
What I'd like to know is: 1/ do faves in the h2h have an advantage at the line 2/ do home teams have an advantage I know of a bookie that offers $2 lines, 100% market, and I want to try it out this year. |
Raven,
I do not have the lines. But if your really interested !!!! they are available at oddsportal.com Example: http://www.oddsportal.com/rugby-lea...m-1479106/#ah;2 If you look at the Asian Handicap its the line is the one which has the hightest number of bookmakers against it. In the above link it was 1.5 (10 bookmakers). |
Round 1 selections.
This is just system I am testing. It might have no legs. Roosters vs Rabbitohs -- Rabbitohs should win. No Bet at current Odds. Broncos vs Manly -- Slight edge to Brisbane at home. No bet at current odds. Eels vs Warriors -- Eels should go well at home. Eels bet at $1.72 Canterbury vs North Qld -- Cowboys slight edge. Cowboys bet at $2.09 Penrith vs Canberra --- Canberra slight edge. Canberra at $2.00 Melb vs St George --- Not sure on this. Odds for St George are good but I am staying out of it. No Bet. Cronulla vs Gold Coast -- Cronulla slight edge at home. No Bet at current odds. Newcastle vs Wests -- Too close to call. Tigers bet at $2.60 with value in the odds. Bets: Confident Value Bets: Eels $1.72 Cowboys $2.09 Canberra $2.00 Outsider Value Bets: Tigers bet $2.60 Total to date : 0/1 Profit : -1 unit |
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