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RaceCensus - Value Favourites
One of the systems included with the database is called Value Favourites.
These are the results so far this year: 01/01/2014-15/04/2014 Races Bet: 88 Races Won: 37 S.R./Race: 42.0% Outlay($): 88.00 Return : 96.20 $ Profit : 8.20 % P.O.T. : 9.3% We're beating the TAB takeout by 9.30% and this isn't even utlilising Best Tote or Betfair ;) |
and a nice strike rate too :)
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I run a similar system CP that looks at the PP favourite that also ends up the NSWTAB favourite, I only run it on Saturday Metro meetings but since the start of 2012 it has given me just under 300 selections for a 47% S/R and 31% POT.
However, as it is a system based around the favourite it is very hard to automate since sometimes the favourite isn't absolutely known until after the start so there are races where I simply can't bet because the 1st and 2nd favourite are just too close together. Or the other issue is I see a 3rd or 4th favourite being heavily backed late that ends up running favourite, I can't bet in these races either since the favourite will likely have changed from the time I place the bet. Favourite systems can be tough to operate but they can be very rewarding, CP is your system based on certain TAB or Betfair or official SP? |
Based on NSW TAB favourite, average win dividend $2.60.
I check fixed odds and Betfair to be sure when it's close. |
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I had a similar problem but converted to the on course opening fav. When there were 2 or more equal opening favs I simply didn't bet. The few % in strike/rate I missed out on as the opening fav drifted & ran 2nd-3rd fav etc was compensated by the better odds. This gave me a chance to hunt around for the best odds knowing my selection as soon as the prices came up. Cheers. |
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I have the same problem at Mattio - but I will have a look at Betfair (I already look at fixed odds). Just a recent race, I bet on the favourite, but when the race was running, he became 3rd favourite! In this case, the horse won anyway which was great - but according to the plan, I shouldn't have bet on him... |
VALUE FAVOURITES 01/01/2014-19/04/2014
WIN Races Bet: 97 Races Won: 41 S.R./Race: 42.30% Outlay($): $97.00 Return : $109.10 $ Profit : $12.10 % P.O.T. : 12.50% NSW TAB Dividend returns. |
[QUOTE=mattio]I run a similar system CP that looks at the PP favorite that also ends up the NSWTAB favourite, I only run it on Saturday Metro meetings but since the start of 2012 it has given me just under 300 selections for a 47% S/R and 31% POT.
Excellent stuff, can I ask what do you use as your initial PP fav prices?, eg. Tab Form, SMH, etc etc |
would it too much to ask for the system rules for the value favourites system.
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