Anzac Day Greys
 

My ratings for Meadows.

I will keep my strategy very simple. I will back the top rated dog for win IF an overlay price available. I will also back for a place if $2.00 available.

4/4 TOKEN SPINNER 97.5 $1.98
5/7 MALIBU 99.6 $2.68
6/5 SIMONOVA 98.9 $3.01
7/3 DEWANA EL GALO 100.7 $2.35
8/4 UNFINISHED 100.4 $1.91
9/1 GOLD AFFAIR TWO 98.5 $2.03
10/8 CHIC SHIRAZ 97.8 $2.12
11/4 DOOMED 97.4 $2.10
12/5 ORLANDO JAY 94.5 $3.81

I notice the prices about my faves appear "short". I might have to tighten the pricing model me thinks.

You having a spell Mo?

I was thinking the exact same thing this morning.

But if it is an Underlay , there may well still be a betting opportunity.
You have to develop an ability to see the Big Picture.
If the picture comes out blurry , it means the race is not a betting proposition.

The MEADOWS Race 8

3 DIN'S ECHO $3.6
4 UNFINISHED $4.5
8 PARISETTE $6.0
5 JAYDE'S TURN $9.1
1 LUCKY CHOICE $11.7
6 BOWSTREET SENTRY $13.2
2 REBEL GIRL $29.7
7 EXCELLENT CHOICE $37.4

This Race is very open and very blurry.
The ONLY clear thing is that I am happy about the calculated Odds about the top selection.
If it starts Unders , then there is no other animal likely of starting an Overlay that I could Quinella with it.
So this race is Win Only or just watch.

RAVEN.

There is NO WAY that Malibu should be at shorter Odds than Ellie Bale.
If you wish to improve your Ratings , spend a little time on the race and see what it is that is causing Malibu to be on top.
I suggest perhaps you need to learn about Box Advantage.
If you haven't incorporated it into your Formula , perhaps you should consider it.

Meadows Winning Boxes for past 12 months

BOX 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 TOTAL
MEA525 194 159 130 113 87 114 86 100 983
MEA600 54 28 25 36 24 21 20 15 223
MEA725 6 5 6 3 3 3 4 6 36

http://www.grv.org.au/Statistics/Tr...nningBoxes.aspx

Plus RAVEN.
As you are experimenting you will come up with some WILD Prices , that are obviously wrong when compared to the starting Prices.
When you have an animal at extreme Odds compared to its starting Price , and it wins , try to find what it is that caused your formula to suggest it had Zero Chance.
And the same when you have something short and it starts Big Odds and fails accordingly.

WRONG ODDS are generally worse than no Odds at all.

Being in the holiday mood I thought I'd join in.
Here are my selections only box number order not in any way ranked just qualify for my system.

race 5 #1,5,7
race 6 #6
race 7 #2,4,5
race 8 #3,5
race 9 #2,5,7
race 10 #2,6
race 11 #4
race 12 #6,8

Good luck

No analysis has been done on these markets, pure speed related only.

I like to kid myself that one day I will find the time to develop this further, we shall see.

Try these

I spend ages coming up with My Markets.
Yet I still haven't developed the skills necessary to rely on them to get me winning.
And thats because they still let me down as often as not.

MEADOWS Race 5

1 ELLIE BALE $2.8
7 MALIBU $5.4
8 CAPTAINS MOUNT $8
5 FINEST RESULT $9.4
6 SUN'S UP $14.6
3 LONG BLACK ROAD $16.5
4 DUNBRO LILLY $17.4
2 SHIRAZ REEF $23.0

I expect the top selection to be an Underlay.
In fact I expect the whole Field to start Underlays.
Regardless , I will be taking 2 Exotics
Flexi Tri and Flexi 4 for $4 each

1 - 7,8,5 - 7,8,5,6 - 7,8,5,6

If I were fair dinkum I would skip this race.

My sums suggest return of around 32 units at mid tote (easy to get) for outlay of 17. Hope you had a win.

Yes didn't do too badly at all for such a simple system, that takes about a minute and a half/race with no computer needed.
(well in a way it is needed but only to look at the screen).

No, I didn't bet as we were having a sausage burn going on with a few mates.
But the beaut thing about dog races is that there are millions of them every day, so what you miss out on today you can catch up tomorrow.

Good luck

Wrap Up
 

Meadows

8 win bets, 3 winners, collect $19.1
3 place bets, 2 collects, collect $5.20

Shepparton

5 win bets, 1 winner, collect $5.30
3 place bets, 1 collect, collect $2.00

Outlay $19
Return $31.60

A good priced winner at Meadows made the day, but Chic Shiraz was also pretty stiff at $6 imo. Poor class meeting at Shep really, the ratings suggest that, I also don't like the very short distances. Things to consider

It's ill advised to offer an opinion here that could by any stretch of imagination be taken as "help" but here it goes anyway.

Don't complicate things mate!
KISS is the way to go!

A race is a race is a race!

Good work on Simonova,
I had it rated highly purely on it's ability to be close to leading at the first turn, then it would be a big chance as its second sectionals once 1-2 are very good. Best I had it though was about a 5.60 chance
But based on pure speed I'm sure the #1 would be on top in that race