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Betting Outsiders
I have been considering a system for betting outsiders for $5 on Betfair because of their usually higher divvies on S.P. than on the TABS.
For example, on Saturday the winner at Flemington R8 paid $55 on the TAB whilst $140 on S.P. Betfair, Eagle Farm R8 paid $111 whilst $210 on Betfair, Morphetville R6 $61 compared $240. There have been more instances quite frequently, even yesterday there were $45, $60, $90, $40 winners. Over the last seven days the system would have shown a profit on six days, and over the past three days it would have provided a profit of about $1,500. For convenience I will show the selections NOT to bet, so all other horses in the race to be bet $5 S.P. on Betfair. Ararat 1/4,5,9 2/9 3/12 4/7,11,12 5/3,4 6/2,4,5,10,11,12,15 7/1,3 8/1,2,3,4 Armidale 1/3,8 2/1,3,10,11 3/3,6,7,8,10,11 5/2,4 6/2,3,4,5,6,8,9 7/2,3,5,6 By my reckoning there are 101 selections today which is an outlay of $505 which I shall bet. I know the outlay is huge (over $5000 over the past 3 days) but I'm hoping and somewhat confident. |
I've slightly changed the selection process which I hope to be more convenient and accurate, and I shall list them - these are the selections which I shall bet for $5 on Betfair S.P.
Ararat 1/2,6,7,8,10 2/1,4,5,6,11 3/1,3,4,5,7,8,10,11 4/1,2,3,4,5,8,9,10,14 5/7,9,10 6/1,3,6,8,10,12,15 7/5,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14 8/5,7,8,9,10,11,12,13 Armidale 1/1,4,5,9,10,12,13 2/2,4,5,6,7,8 3/1,4,7,8 5/5,6,8,9,10 6/2,7,8,9,10,11,12 7/5,7,8,910 88 selections for an outlay of $440. |
A disaster today - from the 14 races there were only three that showed a profit giving an overall loss of $210. I'll give it another go tomorrow.
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As everyone knows, I love longshots - and on Saturday there were lots of them, one paid $111! But on the longshots thread, we proved that its difficult to win consistently on them. However, good luck on this method - I like betting on horses, not laying them...
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Yes it was a terrible day losing about $200 in spite of impressive results during the test period. I'm giving it another go today again today.
As a a matter of interest I also looked at the Greyhounds last night and I on-paper applied a similar method to the horses. Testing was a happy eye-opener so I immediately began to bet with real money. There were 34 races which produced a profit in twelve of them for an overall profit of $80. There were also good Quinelllas and Trifectas. If I have time I will list today's selections on the appropriate section. The Betfair divvies can also be very high in Dog racing. |
Quote:
Q. If u put $100 on what would that do to the price? |
Just a suggestion michaelg, it's probably best to combine a longshots method with another successful method to pad out the very bad runs that you have to endure.
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Tipsy, I've had a couple of bets where I've layed a selection for $10,00 S.P. on Betfair and I don't believe it affected the price of either, so I'm hoping (not confidentally though)that betting also won't affect the S.P. price.
Chrome, there's a lot of action so I'll give it a go as is for now. Today's selections: Grafton 5/3,5,6,8,9,10,11,12 6/1,3,5,6,7,9,11,12,13,14 7/2,3,5,7,9,12,13,14,16,17,18 8/1,2,3,6,7,8,11,12,13 9/3,4,5,6,8,10,11,12,13 Kilmore 3/2,3,9,11 4/2,6,7,11 6/5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12 7/4,6,9 8/1,3,4,5,11,14,16 Mackay 7/4,5,6,8,9,10 |
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