Food for thought...
 

Food for thought...

There are just as many ways to win in this game as there are to lose - the more I look, the more I see this to be the case. However, human nature suggests that we tend to focus on the former when it comes to hypothesising / testing / searching for the grail etc, and the latter when it comes to the execution / selection of a good thing / placing the bet etc etc

Hence, most of us lose more often than we win!

How to flip?


Cheers LG

Hi LG,

Unfortunately, you are absolutely correct!

It has to do with a few things we see all the time. The only way to succeed is to execute consistently! Oh.... a winning method sure helps but a winning method does not automatically mean that you will win.

So what causes people to fail executing consistently? Most are not prepared for the risk and commitment involved using their chosen method. Unfortunately many methods are constructed on evidence of a few weeks worth of data or small sample size and changed frequently. What is left is just chaos and the results that you mentioned ensue.

People are very comfortable looking at a test of their method seeing a run of outs of say 20 or what ever; because they have the crystal ball of seeing the overall results. They don't even think what this sort of run of outs can do for their mental stability when you have to place the 21st bet blind in real life betting or that it may take months for them to get through that run. Especially if their betting bank or bet size is not correct. Looking at the end test results does not prepare you. Unless you know exactly what the risks are, using a long term test and adjusting your betting to the system/method specifically then most people stand no chance.

Simply stated most punters are not prepared for what punting is really about and many punters also have a very distorted expectations often based on incomplete results or advertising.

We are also playing in a negative sum game. Even with betfair your still at a 6.5% discount which is better then the totes at 15%.

This is why this game is so hard and so few win. Playing stocks on the other hand is a positive sum game (they generally increase in value). But its more long term and not as fun.

Already have the pot reduced to only 93.5% or 85%. The only way for one to win is to beat your fellow punter. Not only do you have to beat him, you have to beat him sufficiently great enough to overcome the forementioned discounts.

Well UB, the ASX200 was a zero sum game from mid 2009 to mid 2012...??

Agreed ... but zero sum is still better then punting's negative sum. Also when
you include dividends it was probably a positive sum game over that time.


Long term the markets are generally positive vs punting takeout which will always mean its a negative sum game.

Darky.

Can't help but think that you are right regards the 'lottery aspect' of punting that you have referred to elsewhere, but this can work for us I think (if not for 'the crowd'). What if we turned it all around. What if we started off with the assumption* that everything in this game is completely random, unless proven to be otherwise. Assume nothing?

We could focus on a single aspect e.g. the SP favorite on the tote has the same chance as any other horse in a Sat - metro handicap race. Then stick 1 unit on the nose per selection - a lay bet on the basis that any horse running has a equal chance of winning the race(not just the favorite on the tote?). Record each outcome as you go. See what happens.

In other words..
1. Assume nothing
2. Pick something most punters believe to be true
3. Pick a specific example of this
4. Assume that everyone else is wrong
5. Test - trial the opposite case x 100 trials

Thoughts, gentlemen?

Cheers LG


* as opposed to beginning with a personal hunch or racing myth = what everyone knows to be true or what you suspect to be true etc etc

LG,

I tend to do that now.

Cheers.

Any results that might be of interest??

LG

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