Race Selection
 

Going on from a few other threads lately, seems race selection is being mentioned more and more.

Having not looked at this myself, is anyone interested in sharing there thoughts and what they are looking for when selecting bettable races (without giving away there golden goose obviously)?

Are you looking for races such as:
-only races above certain class/rating
-minimum starts of all horses in the race
-no maidens
-no 2yo/3yo races

Just thought it could be an interesting discussion we might all be able to learn something from.

I would suggest the opposite of whatever the normal racing mythology proposes...
i.e. maidens - Yes! 100%. Maidens are a lot easier to bet on for a number of reasons. Generally smaller fields, often only a few runners have ever run a race before. It is my humble belief that most people, if they put their mind to it, would have a better success rate in betting on maidens than your average BM70 race.

Ignore "great races" unless they are a sprint with someone like Winx in it. The more "good" horses in a field, the harder to pick who will win.

Only bet on the first 4 races on the card. In most of the systems I have tested you are better off betting on the 1st 4 races. Not always true, but generally true. Similarly, I find it is generally more successful to bet on day time races for both racing and harness.

And the all time mother load of race selection methods - stop when you are ahead!

Oh, and always pick the fastest horse in the race :-) (this means if you cant identify a horse that is obviously faster than the others, dont bet that race.)

Have a great day....
ET

All of the options provided are not how I do race selection.

Race selection is a key part of being profitable and 99% of people don't do it at all or don't do it right.

Race selection is only partly about maidens, form, weather, etc. These are things lots of people already factor into their betting. "I only bet on Good Tracks where all horses have had at least 3 starts" is a common race selection technique. But this is basic race selection.

Here is my interpretation of race selection and how I do it. I won't reveal how or even the factors I take into account as they are key to me beating the rest of you. But I can provide some theory.

Race selection is about knowing the race. Its about understanding if 1,2,3, or 10 horses could win. It is about knowing how many can be ruled out as losers. Its about predicting improvements or losses in form on all the horses. From this you should know the minimum and maximum performances you can expect from every horse in the race and how they relate to each other which then tells you the likelyhood of it being a profitable race. Its about odds as well. Regardless of your research if the odds are not showing a certain way then it could be an unprofitable race to bet on even if you think there are only 3 chances. It could also suggest betting on 7 out of 10 horses is a great idea. You don't know till you understand the race, the horses and the odds market in combination.

Whoopee dooooo!! EXACTLY.

There is very little difference in results from Country Maidens to Group1 races.

8 -14 starters ALL Going Fav results

Maidens ....... 34.10% $2.62
Group .......... 33.05% $2.68
WFA ............ 30.25% $2.93
C1 - 6 .......... 29.88% $2.89
MonCntryMdn 34.53% $2.62
SatMetro Grp .33.83% $2.68

As you will appreciate WSR's and prices improve/fall in line with Field size (see tables previously posted on this site).

I have included Monday Country Maiden and Saturday Metro Group races simply to demonstrate that "the money" isn't too far out despite the difference in class.

It is easy to demonstrate that the same lack of significant variation exists when one considers Going or Track or Barrier or the colour of the jockey's underpants.

Some of the 'systemateers' ignore this and look for horses which last raced 14 days ago on a wet track and placed from a barrier less than and on and on for another dozen "rules". This isn't horse selection. It's 'coincidence' hunting on the basis that it happened b4 (3 & 7 years ago) so it might happen again.

To my tiny mind UB has got it right.

Do your OWN analysis of the field, segregate the 'chances', and then calculate how it's possible to bet them for a profit. If the analysis gives you a 'beige' mixture then walk away.

Making a coupla bob on the Neddies isn't as simple as buying a 'system' or this or that 'can't fail' software. It's learning and adhering to the 'walk away' filters and doing your homework.

Some good points ET, but the above is terrible advice and wrong for so many reasons.