There is a tide in the affairs of men .....
 

There is a tide in the affairs of men,
Which, taken at the flood, leads on to a fortune:

Brutus speaks of a metaphorical "tide", in the lives of human beings: by taking advantage of the high tide, one may float out to sea and travel far. Brutus assumes that we can tell when the tide is high, but characters repeatedly fail to register fate's opportunities and warnings, neglecting to choose correctly .....

• There is a Sweet Spot with a well constructed system.

• Too often punters "bet" a system from low tide to high tide and back to low tide again.

Too often punters "bet" a system from low tide to high tide and back to low tide again.

How could you possibly know this ????

Interesting concept Barny. There's a horse racing around or was last year or the year before called " Taken at the flood. " I thought it a strange name but did not know its origin.

Barny's quote got the better of me so I asked 'Google " he is my friend. I can now see the significance of the name and why a horse might finish up with a name like that.

I suppose it is also close to striking while the iron is hot or in Brutus's case while they still held some strength before the enemy increased theirs.

Floating on the high tide brings in the riches and scrambling at the low can be disastrous. So, how does this apply to gambling and the horses.

I know my wisdom comes in moments of inspiration, luck, being in the right place at the right time, etc and seems to run in patches. You get on a roll, not only in gambling but other things in your life then the tide starts to run out and you have to get off the ride as soon as possible.

Unfortunately, with the horses, the unpredictability means that even Nostradamus would have difficulty in deciding when to sit and when to jump.

If we could get a little bit of insight as to what way the wind is blowing, or whether the high water mark has been reached and the waters receding then that might just be the edge in value we are looking for.

Buggar if I know how we are going to achieve that though. Knowing what is needed and being able to achieve near enough, is the problem.

Pete

You will never know.
You will never know until the event has been done and dusted.
Only people who mess with databases of races completed can see it.
The result of tomorrows event has very little to do with todays event.
Very little.
Unlike a Flood , where there is half a chance there will be still much water tomorrow.
Fodder for the successful Punters is all.

The concept is quite simple. You must have a successful system! A key feature of having a successful system is your ability to understand why it performs as it does, including both good and bad results, and accepting that luck plays it's part too. A well constructed system will consist of interactions of logical filters when combined are somewhat representative of how a trainer might go about his / her business and most importantly, an ability to cash in on punter's misconceptions.

Favourites have had a consistent Win S/R worldwide back to the year dot and even though we don't know if the favourite is going to win the next race we can take that 30% Winning S/R to the bank. There are filters that when combined form an unbelievably powerful and logical combination = these form the Win S/R, the trainers success if you like. Usually only one other filter (rarely but sometimes two) will be used to identify the value, as previously mentioned, the cashing in on punters misconceptions.

For sure I'm going to cop it from the usual poster / s who just haven't worked hard enough, but I'll give a very simple example: Sometimes you need to put in filters, sometimes you don't. A horse dropping back in distance will not usually be successful on the back of a seven day turnaround (why would trainers do that anyway?) so maybe a filter for days between runs is important here ..... A horse that's won a few races as a two year old usually will not repeat that success as a three year old, so a system based on Win S/R needs to eliminate two year olds. Most of the systems posted on here (they're a fair while ago now) are concerned with stats, and fiddling around the edges, with next to no discussion as to what would be a logical and complimentary filter and represent how a trainer might go about their business. That's a big miss as far as I'm concerned, nearly as big as missing exploiting racing myths and discussing punter's misconceptions. I'm unable to test Ratings or Newspaper polls etc, but I have to say that I'm yet to test a system published on here that shows a profit year in year out.

The truly profitable systems would never be published on a site like this (or any other for that matter) as any profitability would likely be wiped out after the masses get on.

I have developed many systems over the past couple of years, some good some bad and some downright horrible but I have 4 systems that will never be shared with anyone as they are very profitable and so simple it's rediculous.

Thanks for sharing that with us Mattio.

I would also add Jockeys to that.
After many years of the daily grind of a computer and sky, one gets to notice a few things about certain people that can add to ones punting armory.

Would you back a first starter over 1400 metres, or a first up over 2000 metres, I would and do, IF they are from a certain stable. Most wouldn't!!

How do you feel about a Jockey that is classed as one of the top in NSW. Would you back him on a favourite that ticks all the boxes and is backed like it is unbeatable. I wouldn't and don't.

Just a couple of things that I've noticed over time and go through my head when I look at a race, ( there are many more ).

No problems :)

Plus 1.