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a funny thing happened whilst on the pot of gold journey
Just recently I have been interested in some BF laying strategies.
I am using GRUSS as a bot integrated with excel and it has some smarts which allow me to put in price cut offs and market filters etc. and most importantly automatically load up and split the bets over several individual bets at different prices. In addition I have a selection method to produce horses which would be good to lay bet. Across Australia, UK and South Africa there is about 120,000 selections per year so it’s quite an attractive concept because the individual risk per race or per bet is reasonably low. Mind you some do get up at 100/1 which can be painful. That aside the LOT is around 40% and the SR is about 4% and I have 4 years of an untouched ( i.e. not back fitted) pool of selections . The monthly range is 35% to 45% LOT so it is quite consistent. The LOT is calculated using tatts bet prices. You would think “how good is this… can’t lose ‘’ $10 per selection, thus 1.2M in annual turnover and allow 10% LOT remaining and bingo 120k tax free etc. etc. All good…on paper However reality is different. The BF lay prices are so much higher than the TAB prices it is incredible. I always knew they were better but not by as much as i am seeing. A selection will win at 10 on TAB and will pay 15+ on BF. Even worse at about $20- sometimes 35+ on BF So far after a couple of months I reckon my profit is about 2% on turnover. This is where the” funny thing” comes in. I reckon if you can come up with a selection method that has the following characteristics you are on a guaranteed winner AS A PUNTER – NOT A LAYER. 1. SR <5% 2. LOT <30% 3. Using prices for 1 TAB only That means your average winner is about -14-1 Even better if you can get that average up to about 18+. Reason is because the BF prices ARE SO MUCH BETTER FOR OUTSIDERS that as a punter on these “penny dreadfuls” you could clean up. If your average up above is 14 and you get 5 winners per 100 you return $70. If BF can lift you to an average of 25 you get 125 less comms. |
I was looking at a simple laying system - 1 rule - lay the worst jockey in the field. (Determining the worst jockey by pairwise comparison).
It looked promising at first, yes there were a lot of $50+ (one was 600 I think), but there were also a few shorties that were let down but having a crap jockey. I spent hours checking the BF SP results, but alas it turns out this one simple rule wasn't enough. But, something which really surprised me was the number of long (and I mean LONG) shots that placed at big odds. So I'm gonna go back through all those results again, but this thime record the place prices. Although it worries me that such a counter-intuitive filter might be used for backing... |
Quote:
it worried me too - but its the super prices that you get on BF sometimes that makes a difference. when you are laying you make small profits per race. a 150-1 winner can smash you for a few days. i laid one last week that lost by a nose at 160-1. is tatts price was about $44 heart attack material. i hadn't checked the place strategies but i think its probably similia. |
If your not collecting betfair prices that you could lay to in order to test laying systems then you are going to lose.
If your using tab prices then the only way you can assume the results are about right with a 15% increase in odds is in the < $5 range. After that you want to add 30% up to $10 and then 100% up to $50 and then 500% for anything longer. Even then it might be higher. |
Some examples from the last race at Bathurst (R6):
Tatts $26 Betfair $516 this is about 19 times the tatts price Tatts $59 Betfair $422 this is about 7 times the tatts price Tatts $61 Betfair $463 this is about 8 times the tatts price. Maybe 500% was a little too conservative. |
It all comes down to probability. Actual probability, not implied. Just because it's $51 on the tote doesn't mean it's got a 50:1 chance? It's real chance of winning might be 500:1, so if you can lay it for $250 you're getting unders.
You need to map all this out, find out where the edge is. I've done over 6 years worth for all Betfair prices, for all ranks and six different 1st fave categories. There is profit to be made there, but we're happy that backers think there's a gold mine in backing longshots. Keep it up ;) |
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