Neural Settings
 

After the discussion within the last couple pages of the lay the outsiders thread I'm pretty keen to try adjusting the Neural Settings (i.e. 0,1,2,3,4,5) based on impact values. This may be in relation to race prizemoney, distance, venue, day, state and conditions (Basically the detals in relation to the race and not the horses themselves).

However my issue is that my record keeping is similar to that of a caveman as I only have good knowledge of excel, which unfortunately (to my knowledge) isn't so useful as a database tool when your trying to record a number of variables for say a 12 horse field.

So two things
a) Does anyone have a database of the R&S Neural's recorded (preferably on setting 5) along with the other race details as mentioned above
b) Does anyone profficient in setting up a database to record such things wish to give me a hand in getting started?

I don't mind doing all the data mining as I actually enjoy messing around with numbers, hence why I continue to build and adapt on my own ratings method. Any outcomes of interest that I find i'm obviously happy to share with whoever can provide some help or possibly the forums as a whole depending on how useful the outcomes are.

If I can't find anyone interested i'll have to try go it alone, cheers.

I have them on default settings. (3 for everything but wet. Wet = 0)
I also have most of the other stuff depending on the time frame you want it for.

But if someone else has the data can they please provide it as I am currently inundated with a heavy workload and I don't have a lot of time to provide this in a useable format at the moment.

UB, default settings would still do the trick, only makes a difference on the decimal places a bit. No rush on the data either, not a project I plan to have done by sunday or something, just an idea I think has some merit and deserves some investigation.

Let me know if/when you got time and we can possibly work on this together and see what we come up with.

Please contact me , I will be able to help you in some way
feebles36@gmail.com

Managed to get my own spreadsheet together and have been recording the neurals now since about friday last week. Obviously going to need a LOT more data before the Impact Value's start being representative of the true impact of their variables but at least its a start.

At the moment i'm gauging the impact the race variables have on the neurals to hopefully get a more accurate adjusted version of the neurals. I gave it a try yesterday with the limited data and had some success plus the Adelaide Cup winner became the 4th top rater instead of about 7th or 8th in the neurals.

Race variables im calculating IV's for:
- Distance
- Prizemoney
- Conditions (G,D,S,H)
- Venue (Tatts code's at the moment, with more data will likely move to Metro/Provincal/Country the same as garyf)
- Race Rating
- Race Age restrictions
- Race Sex resitrictions
- No. of Runners

I might start posting some results in another 2-3 weeks time once the data has been given some time to at least build up a little. I still need to get in contact with Feeble though and see if I can do it on some historical data as well. Will post more updates as I go for those interested.

Hey all,

Another update regarding my trial of adjusting Neural settings based on impact values of the race conditions as mentioned in previous post. I've now got 500 races recorded over the last 10 or so days. A lot of the impact values are starting to take shape and on saturday I used the adjusted Neurals to back some horses before my basketball grand final in the afternoon. Managed to hit 4 winners with odds of $2, $8, $9 and $12. Not sure if it was just a lucky morning of punting or the impact values are really working their magic.

There are still some racing elements that simply haven't had enough races recorded yet so their impact values are way over/under stated (For example Mares only races). These type of races will likely take a couple of months at least before their impact values are representative of the actual performance.

However once I have 1,000 races recorded sometime in the next 2 weeks i'll start collecting the data on the adjusted Neurals as well and their performance to see if it does improve the performance of the Neural ratings. Initial thoughts is that it does improve the results and that it can possibly used both from a backing point of view and laying point of view. An idea i've got at the moment is to lay the bottom rated horse in races of 8 or less horses, bottom 3 in 12 or less runners and bottom 5 in 13+ horse fields however i'll have to run some tests obviously to see if its viable.

Anyway just thought i'd keep people up to date and will start getting some results up in the near future.

thanks for the update. Looks like an interesting approach.

Almost finished collecting the 1,000 races of data to start looking at the viability of my adjusted Neurals. On a side note I used them again yesterday while I was home sick from work and jagged a $17 winner with my 2nd bet, I'm very keen to see how it performs long term.

In the meantime i've been reading a few of the threads on Neurals lately (mainly michaelg's) and i'm wondering if anybody has a database of the Neurals and are willing to test something for me a bit longer term.

I've tested it myself over the 950 races i've got recorded so far but would like it tested a bit more extensively. The rules are extremely simple and based on my testing the average odds required for it to break even is about $18 (Lay system). If anyone could help me out it would be greatly appreciated, obviously if it proves to be seriously profitable then whoever helps me out can use it.

Will post more updates regarding my adjusted Neurals in the coming weeks.

Noorals
 

Onya Eva. I'm watching with interest. I saw where somebody posted about the boring "noorals" but I find them fascinating as an area on which many approaches could be buiilt - both backing and laying.

If it uses the basic settings and doesn't use the price field then I can help out longer term. Otherwise I'm no help.