Price Winning Percentage
 

I know it is in here somewhere but can't find it, can anyone tell me the percentage chance based on fav position if winning.

Fav winning 30%
2nd fav winning ?
3rd fav wining?

I know price plays a big factor but am just after an estimate.

Roughly

34%
22%
15%

cheers mate, that's a bit higher than i thought.

I actually wrote them down without looking it up but then went and checked the database to confirm. The numbers are right.

So if one were Multi Betting then the first 3 in the betting would be the ones to concentate on @ 71% strike rate.

Might actually trial this.

Thanks.

The payouts will be hopeless. Not worth it.

Yes.

The prices and returns were hopeless.
Didn,t take me long to chuck that idea aside.

FAV 30%
2nd- 25
3rd- 15
4th- 10
5th- 5
Total 85%

Favs % can vary a bit depending on number ot odds on shots in sample batch.

If you remove all odds on shots in that 1st FAVs 30% fig. S/R drops to 27%

Metro Melb Sat only 1850 Races, 6 Dead Heats
PrePost Herald Sun, Divs Are BSP--Figures are rounded

Fav	32	1.08	1790	565	3.42
2nd	16	0.88	1783	291	5.39
3rd	13	0.96	1773	236	7.2
4th	11	0.99	1759	185	9.45
5th	9	0.94	1724	148	10.97
	%	Return on $1	Starters	Winners	Av. BSP

The more I play with the stats the more i realise that the price is the indicator of success.

This table looks at races (287,983) and uses TAB price with Fav. Rank to generate WSR's. The selected field size was 9 - 13 starters.

RANK..........1.............2............3........ .....4........
$2.0...........44.8%......XX........XX..........XX
$2.5...........34.1.........XX........XX.......... XX
$3.0...........28.7........29.9.......33.3........ .XX
$3.5...........23.7........23.3.......24.1........ .XX
$4.0...........20.0........20.2.......18.4........ 16.7
$4.5...........17.9........18.1.......17.6........ 19.3
$5.0...........15.6........14.9.......14.7........ 12.9

The average Aus Field is 11 (rounded .... I can't deal with 0.18 of a horse).

Doubtless it would be possible to correct either/both WSR and Price to BSP (I haven't looked).